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News
Which Party Will Win the Senate? Silver Bulletin Tipping Point Odds
9+ hour, 39+ min ago (489+ words) Nate Silver sees the Senate as a tossup. I disagree. The tipping point state is determined by ordering margins of victory in decreasing order (largest to smallest) The tipping point is the state with the smallest percentage margin of victory…...
Ford and GM Seek Tariffs on Each Other, Consumers Want Neither
16+ hour, 43+ min ago (672+ words) Ford wants tariffs on GM’s South Korea-made cars. GM wants tariffs on Ford batteries. Which Automaker Is More American? Here’s an amusing but unsurprising story in the Wall Street Journal regarding the rent-seeking behavior of big US automakers. Please consider…...
Trump Says “I’ll Never Apologize, You’re Just Paying a Tiny Bit More”
1+ day, 7+ hour ago (210+ words) Trump just handed the Democrats another midterm election talking point. “Trump: For you to pay a TINY little bit more for your gasoline, you’re doing it so that a very evil country cannot have a nuclear weapon. Remember that when…...
Retail Sales Dive 0.6 Percent in July as Tax Refund Stimulus Abruptly Ends
1+ day, 17+ hour ago (472+ words) The Republican tax refund stimulus is over. Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month Please consider the Census Department report on Advance Retail Sales for June of 2026. Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday…...
Trump Orders the Navy to Restore Steam Engine Tech on Aircraft Carriers
2+ day, 4+ hour ago (649+ words) Trump is a mechanical engineer now, hoping to make steam engines great again. The Navy Tried to Talk Trump Out of This The Wall Street Journal reports Trump Orders Navy to Restore Older Tech on Aircraft Carriers, Costing Billions President…...
Trump’s Trade War With Canada on Verge of Becoming Economically Nasty
2+ day, 15+ hour ago (1379+ words) A USMCA trade deal breakdown with Canada is increasingly likely. Carney Walks a Political Tightrope Canada retaliated against Trump’s tariffs by pulling US liquor from store shelves. It’s not that easy to restore but a trade breakdown may hinge on…...
Look Ahead Inflation Numbers Do Not Support a Fed Pause in September
3+ day, 12+ hour ago (511+ words) Today’s CPI report is history. Let’s look ahead. The lead chart shows reported CPI and PCE year-over-year numbers plus the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast. CPI and PCE Measures Plus Nowcast Pay attention to the orange lines. Core PCE, excluding food…...
July CPI Report Not as Good as Numbers Look at First Glance
3+ day, 16+ hour ago (502+ words) The consumer price index rose the expected 0.1 percent, but significant troubles lie ahead. CPI Month-Over-Month The BLS reports the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July after falling 0.4 percent in…...
Two Betting Markets Now Have Democrat Talarico Ahead in Texas Senate Race
4+ day, 13+ hour ago (890+ words) The betting markets are catching up to my prediction. Today, Democrat James Talarico passed Republican Ken Paxton in the Polymarket betting market for Texas Senate Election Winner. The Republican nominee is Ken Paxton because Trump dumped Senator John Cornyn on…...
Are Hourly Earnings Rising Too Slowly to Cause Inflation?
5+ day, 7+ hour ago (908+ words) That’s the claim by two prominent names. I respectfully disagree. The lead chart shows the percent change in hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers from the same quarter a year ago. That change is 3.53 percent. If we use percent…...