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Calculated Risk Newsletter
calculatedrisk. substack. com > p > fannie-and-freddie-single-family-b15

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in March

11+ hour, 49+ min ago  (212+ words) In general, single family delinquency rates are low but increasing slowly - although the delinquency rate decreased seasonally in March. Multi-family delinquency rates are high and increasing. Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in March was 0. 60%, down from…...

Calculated Risk Newsletter
calculatedrisk. substack. com > p > case-shiller-national-house-price-5df

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 0. 7% year-over-year in February

16+ hour, 19+ min ago  (446+ words) S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for February ("February" is a 3-month average of December, January and February closing prices). December closing prices include some contracts signed in October, so there is a significant lag to this…...

Calculated Risk Newsletter
calculatedrisk. substack. com > p > final-look-at-local-housing-markets-05f

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March and a Look Ahead to April Sales

4+ day, 16+ hour ago  (566+ words) After the National Association of Realtors" (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in March. There were several…...

Calculated Risk Newsletter
calculatedrisk. substack. com > p > nmhc-on-apartments-market-tightness

NMHC on Apartments: Market Tightness "mostly unchanged" in April Survey

5+ day, 12+ hour ago  (176+ words) From the NMHC: NMHC Survey Shows Apartment Market Conditions Holding Steady The Sales Volume Index came in at 52, above the breakeven level (50) and up from 47 in January, indicating an increase in deal flow. Twenty-seven percent of respondents reported sales volume…...

Calculated Risk Newsletter
calculatedrisk. substack. com > p > architecture-billings-declined-slightly-96e

Architecture Billings Declined Slightly in March

6+ day, 12+ hour ago  (246+ words) This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential. From the AIA: AIA/Deltek ABI signaling market stabilization with near flat billing activity Architecture firm billings held steady in March, indicating market…...

Calculated Risk Newsletter
calculatedrisk. substack. com > p > lawler-update-on-mbs-yields-and-spreads-633

Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads

1+ week, 1+ day ago  (191+ words) From housing economist Tom Lawler: After rising significantly during the first four weeks of March, current-coupon MBS (CCMBS) yields have reversed over half of that increase. CCMBS yields hit a 2026 low of 4. 81% on February 27th and a 2026 high of 5. 53% on March…...

Calculated Risk Newsletter
calculatedrisk. substack. com > p > part-2-current-state-of-the-housing-0e1

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2026

1+ week, 6+ day ago  (305+ words) Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2026 I reviewed home inventory and sales. I noted that the key stories this year for the existing home market are that months-of-supply was above pre-pandemic levels. And sales…...

Calculated Risk Newsletter
calculatedrisk. substack. com > p > part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-524

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2026

2+ week, 16+ hour ago  (371+ words) This 2-part overview for mid-April provides a snapshot of the current housing market. Note that we are still missing some key pieces of data due to the government shutdown. The Census Bureau is now scheduled to release housing starts for…...

Calculated Risk Newsletter
calculatedrisk. substack. com > p > housing-and-demographics-377

Housing and Demographics

2+ week, 5+ day ago  (227+ words) Substack One of the keys for housing demand is demographics. The Census Bureau just released their estimates of the U. S. population by age for July 2025. The following graph is based on the release for 2025. Note that the largest age groups are…...

Calculated Risk Newsletter
calculatedrisk. substack. com > p > 1st-look-at-local-housing-markets-3e6

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March

3+ week, 13+ hour ago  (418+ words) March sales will be mostly for contracts signed in December and January, and mortgage rates averaged 6. 10% in January and 6. 05% in February (lower than for closed sales in February). A couple of local comments: Las Vegas: "With mortgage rates rising since…...