29+ min ago  (883+ words) Epistemic status: I work on AI safety communications, policy, and field-building. High confidence in the core claim that donors should be front-loading their giving. Lower confidence on magnitudes, recruitment strategies, and the activities of existing funders. TL; DR: A large…...

8+ hour, 45+ min ago  (28+ words) Cars and trucks are getting bigger, and I had a vague sense that fuel economy regulations were partly to blame. Looking into it, it's hard to say how...

14+ hour, 43+ min ago  (985+ words) AI "time horizons" are mostly not about time (I think it"s mostly "data", but you"ll see where I"m unsure). "...

16+ hour, 39+ min ago  (25+ words) (This one's a double-header on the tightly-linked senses of smell and taste, especially pertaining to foodcraft; it comprises both The Space of Olfac...

1+ day, 7+ hour ago  (1368+ words) Veganism is Virtuous, but not Obligatory " "...

1+ day, 7+ hour ago  (1372+ words) Veganism is Virtuous, but not Obligatory " "...

1+ day, 14+ hour ago  (1750+ words) This sequence is an attempt to sketch a unified framework for several interconnected questions: Where do Bayesian priors come from? What even are probabilities? How should we deal with infinite ethics? What's going on with anthropics? I hope to lay…...

1+ day, 15+ hour ago  (568+ words) [see also Four Ways Learning Economics makes you people dumber future AI] "...

1+ day, 10+ hour ago  (804+ words) I've been a toe-in rat and existed on the outskirts of the social scene for approaching a decade now, and I can confidently say (with love) that rati...

1+ day, 7+ hour ago  (836+ words) Lukeprog's How to Beat Procrastination includes in its framework a term for expectancy or how likely/accomplishable a successful outcome feels internally. One of the levers to combat procrastination is thus to increase the perceived odds of getting a reward....