1+ day, 11+ hour ago  (214+ words) A short note for everyone on the free list. You have followed our work on private credit and consumer credit here for a while now. This Memorial Day weekend, I want to give you a real reason to come inside....

1+ week, 1+ day ago  (150+ words) Data Center - I am tired of hearing that word. Can we already rename it to natural resource-guzzling monster? The data center boom is sold as a technology story. It is not. It is a real estate story, financed by the…...

1+ week, 4+ day ago  (335+ words) Headlines this month are citing $76. 6 billion as the 2026 commercial real estate maturity wall, from Trepp's CMBS Hard Maturity Playbook. That figure is CMBS only. It excludes bank loans, life insurance loans, and loans held by debt funds, mortgage REITs, and…...

2+ week, 3+ day ago  (346+ words) Substack does not allow us to remove the basic package from our page. To be clear, the $50/month tier does not include our full analysis, and we have (mentioned in our prior notes) shifted away from this tier. Our work…...

2+ week, 4+ day ago  (533+ words) Investing is not an emotional decision. It should never be. Investing demands more emotional intelligence than mathematical or trading skills. Whether you are an individual or an institutional investor, command over your emotional intelligence is the single driving force of…...

3+ week, 6+ hour ago  (568+ words) We are flabbergasted that investors are not questioning the banks" involvement in private credit. It is as if banks are protecting private credit, and the mainstream media is not asking the questions. Wait. The WSJ did run a series, including…...

4+ week, 3+ hour ago  (293+ words) The story most mainstream media outlets are running goes like this: farm bankruptcies are up 46%, food prices are up, and these are connected. Half of that is right. The other half is wrong in ways that matter. That is the…...

4+ week, 12+ hour ago  (203+ words) Hype Sells'Substack CMBS delinquency rate jumps in March 2026 IMPORTANT NOTE: This newsletter contains information for educational purposes only, and the content below should not be considered financial advice to readers. We DO NOT publish our short research and ideas on…...

1+ mon, 1+ week ago  (699+ words) The lower K is structurally trapped. The fight-or-flight response is the current psychological state of households that cannot predict whether they will be able to cover rent, food, and utilities in the same month. As that state becomes permanent, it…...

1+ mon, 5+ day ago  (472+ words) Before documenting what OBBBA will take from the lower K, it helps to be explicit about what the lower K already has and does not. About 10. 6% of the population, or 35. 9 million people, lived below the poverty line in 2024. This is…...