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News
Anchors Aweigh, My Boys
12+ hour, 3+ min ago (516+ words) Thank you for the many kind comments on the new Tier1 Asset Management launch. I appreciate the support and will honestly say it is helping propel me through the 18-hour days I’m working. To answer a repeated question, Tier1 plans to offer…...
It’s Time to Complicate - by Michael W. Green
1+ week, 16+ hour ago (1692+ words) For five years, I have worked at a firm called Simplify. The irony has never been lost on me. But markets do more than provide investment products. They discover prices, allocate capital, discipline management, and absorb shocks. Those functions depend…...
A Semi-Theory of Almost Everything
3+ week, 10+ hour ago (388+ words) This is going to be a relatively long read. I would have written a shorter piece, but I did not have the time — or, more honestly, the skill to compress two weeks of work into fewer words. “I have only…...
You Can Lead a Horse to Water
1+ mon, 4+ day ago (945+ words) The “impossible” disentanglement has been done — and it just won an award. In 2020, the FT dismissed my passive-investing arguments as “far-fetched,” the blow-up prediction as “fatuous,” and disentangling passive’s effect from larger forces as “impossible.” Hannah Unterberg’s prize-winning paper now…...
The Verb - by Michael W. Green
1+ mon, 1+ week ago (683+ words) It’s July 5th. I spent the weekend in the Pocono Mountains, where the “unexpected” played a role. Power has been out for roughly eighteen hours: So I apologize for the delay in sending this out. I discussed the idea that “Man…...
A Token China Shock - by Michael W. Green
1+ mon, 2+ week ago (432+ words) Last week, I spent some time on what I got wrong. Let’s talk about some things I may have gotten right. First, there is a growing awareness that AI economics simply don’t work as discussed in xAirSupply. This is predictably…...
Size Does Matter - by Michael W. Green
2+ mon, 2+ day ago (756+ words) Anyone watching the stock market over the last decade, knows the headline: “A handful of giant technology companies got enormous, kept climbing, and left the rest of the market behind.” The explanation everyone reaches for is the obvious one: these…...
Probably not... - by Michael W. Green
2+ mon, 2+ week ago (525+ words) Probably not... yesigiveafig.com The pro-cyclical advice is flowing fast and furious This is going to be a shorter than normal note. Hold the applause. Over the past week, I had a number of discussions on podcasts and on the…...
What the Treasury Needs
2+ mon, 3+ week ago (1639+ words) Last week we started to see the first signs of “panic” in the back end of US rates. The 5.15% I offered readers on Sunday became 5.20% by Wednesday: There’s lots of nonsense chatter that “we need higher rates”: Readers of YIGAF…...
Enough is Enough - by Michael W. Green
2+ mon, 4+ week ago (989+ words) There's always gonna be another mountainI'm always gonna wanna make it moveAlways gonna be an uphill battleSometimes I'm gonna have to loseAin't about how fast I get thereAin't about what's waiting on the other side “The Climb” by Miley Cyrus…...