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How Long Will David Silver's Ineffable Intelligence Stay Dark?
1+ week, 5+ day ago (134+ words) Research plan half price for your first month First public result early 2028 at the median, most likely from games or simulated environments, and the company stays British at 93%. Ineffable Intelligence is the London lab founded in late 2025 by David Silver,…...
Forecasting AMI Labs, Yann LeCun's Bet Against LLMs
1+ week, 5+ day ago (138+ words) Research plan half price for your first month First public release May 2028 at the median, a 15% chance a world model beats frontier LLMs on a real benchmark by 2028, and a valuation that probably stays at $4.5B. Yann LeCun left Meta in…...
What will DeepMind Technologies Limited's reported average… — FutureSearch
2+ week, 4+ hour ago (632+ words) What will DeepMind Technologies Limited's reported average… FutureSearch FutureSearch: Search the Future Ask any question about the future and get a forecast: probabilities, numbers, and dates, backed by a public track record on stocks, prediction markets, benchmarks, and forecasting tournaments....
Jeff Dean's Discovery Loop Should Automate Chip Design First
2+ week, 15+ min ago (431+ words) Research plan half price for your first month Automating science has an R&D feedback loop problem in most other domains So what type of science should they automate? I forecasted, conditional on them focusing on one of the 14 domains…...
By December 31, 2027, will a Google DeepMind frontier…: Will Anthropic's annualized spend on Google Cloud exceed… — FutureSearch
2+ week, 4+ hour ago (576+ words) By December 31, 2027, will a Google DeepMind frontier…: Will Anthropic's annualized spend on Google Cloud exceed… FutureSearch FutureSearch: Search the Future Ask any question about the future and get a forecast: probabilities, numbers, and dates, backed by a public track record…...
Google in the Post-Jeff Dean, Post-Demis Hassabis Era
2+ week, 1+ day ago (489+ words) Research plan half price for your first month People are overestimating the harm from losing talent, but underestimating just how far behind the AI frontier Google now is. They're founding Discovery Loop, a public benefit corporation that wants to automate…...
World Modeling: the Shared Model of the World Behind Every FutureSearch Forecast
2+ week, 2+ day ago (409+ words) Research plan half price for your first month Every forecast you run through FutureSearch draws on a world model: a set of shared drivers discovered across thousands of forecasts, which the forecaster commits to one view of and applies consistently....
Published Forecasts from FutureSearch
2+ week, 2+ day ago (217+ words) Research plan half price for your first month General inquiry? You can reach us at [email protected]. Each page shows the answer, the full rationale, and every source the research agents read. Nothing is redacted except the input data of the…...
Forecast Categorical and Threshold Questions with FutureSearch
2+ week, 2+ day ago (528+ words) Research plan half price for your first month General inquiry? You can reach us at [email protected]. Not every question is yes or no. "Who wins?" has four answers. "How high does oil go?" has a ladder of them. Running each…...
Forecast a Decision: the Outcome Under Each Alternative You Could Choose
2+ week, 2+ day ago (324+ words) Research plan half price for your first month General inquiry? You can reach us at [email protected]. decision forecasts the outcome under each alternative of a choice you control. Each row states one yes/no outcome question and lists that decision's…...