4+ hour, 5+ min ago   (1943+ words) “Agency” is one of those terms — see also “priors,” etc. — that I associate with “Silicon Valley rationalist types” and more broadly with the community that I call the River in my book. It’s perhaps slightly more intimidating than it needs…...

4+ day, 9+ hour ago   (549+ words) The larger point, though, is that I think we ought to be careful about conflating class with educational attainment. Apologies for the cliché, but class in America reflects a tapestry of race, educational attainment, and income/economic privilege — and even…...

1+ week, 2+ day ago   (582+ words) But despite what could easily be considered baggage in a purple state like Michigan, El-Sayed was the clear favorite to win the primary before McMorrow dropped out. Prediction markets saw him as the third-place candidate early in the race, but…...

1+ week, 4+ day ago   (1126+ words) Here at Silver Bulletin, we’ve frequently critiqued President Trump, the Democratic “establishment”, “Resistance Libs”, the left, the “tech right,” and the Republican Party. What’s missing from that list? We’ve had less to say about the political tribe that I at…...

2+ week, 2+ day ago   (421+ words) Silver Bulletin The Silver Bulletin World Cup quarterfinals preview PELE’s forecast for the final eight: France leads a tight field, Argentina has the easiest path, and Norway has a real chance to crash the party. This iteration of the World…...

2+ week, 3+ day ago   (754+ words) Silver Bulletin The game theory of replacing Graham Platner 20 thoughts on who really has the leverage in Maine — and what Democrats should do next. There are conflicting reports in Maine; some say that Graham Platner could quit as soon as…...

2+ week, 4+ day ago   (412+ words) Silver Bulletin Don't invest your political capital in sketchy people Political parties don’t get to wait for courtroom certainty. Graham Platner has given Democrats far too many reasons to cut their losses. Graham Platner, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate…...

3+ week, 1+ day ago   (796+ words) I’m going to admit to feeling a swell of patriotic pride after the U.S. beat Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0 on Wednesday.1 Maybe it was a protective reaction after the bullshit red card the referee gave Folarin Balogun. Or maybe it was the juxtaposition…...

3+ week, 5+ day ago   (1084+ words) For nearly four years, the internet has debated whether we’ve been mired in what Kyla Scanlon dubbed a “vibecession” — whether people feel worse about the economy than the underlying data suggests they “should” feel. People as esteemed as Nobel laureate…...

3+ week, 6+ day ago   (355+ words) Which teams gained or lost the most in the group stage as compared to PELE’s pre-tournament expectations? Here is a modified version of the rankings table that sits atop our forecast page, only I’ve added the confederations3 and sorted the table…...