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Eye on the Tropics
michaelrlowry. substack. com > p > june-to-end-with-the-least-active

June to End with the Least Active Hurricane Season Start since 2014

4+ hour, 31+ min ago  (329+ words) Despite impactful flooding last week across the central Gulf Coast from the remnants of short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur " rainfall totals topping two feet in some places, bringing rainfall totals since May to nearly 50 inches across parts of southern Louisiana and…...

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michaelrlowry. substack. com > p > watching-for-home-brews-to-start

Watching for Home Brews to Start July

1+ day, 5+ hour ago  (243+ words) As June transitions to July next week, we'll be keeping an eye off the shores of the southeast U. S. for an elongated area of low pressure tied to a stalled frontal zone that could spawn an area to watch by the…...

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michaelrlowry. substack. com > p > arthurs-remnants-leave-a-trail-of

Arthur's Remnants Leave a Trail of Devastating Flooding Across the Deep South

1+ week, 3+ hour ago  (361+ words) Many of the hardest hit areas saw rainfall rates top 3 inches an hour, an incredible rate that triggered rapid water rises, spawning numerous flash flood emergencies yesterday, with floodwaters overrunning roads and pouring into homes, launching dozens of high-water rescues…...

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michaelrlowry. substack. com > p > flash-flooding-hits-the-new-orleans

Flash Flooding Hits the New Orleans Metro as Arthur Moves Inland

1+ week, 1+ day ago  (502+ words) Short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur " which formed late Wednesday morning along the middle Texas coast " moved inland near Galveston by Wednesday afternoon and lost its tropical designation by Wednesday evening as its circulation quickly unraveled. Nevertheless, intense tropical rainfall well east…...

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michaelrlowry. substack. com > p > tropical-storm-arthur-forms-along

Tropical Storm Arthur Forms Along the Texas Coast, Fuels Flood Threat Across the Deep South

1+ week, 2+ day ago  (401+ words) The National Hurricane Center late Wednesday morning upgraded Potential Tropical Cyclone One to Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. As of 11 AM ET Wednesday, the center of Arthur was located along the middle Texas…...

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michaelrlowry. substack. com > p > odds-increase-for-short-lived-tropical

Odds Increase for Short-Lived Tropical Storm this Week

1+ week, 3+ day ago  (249+ words) The first name on the list is Arthur. Forecast models continue to advertise only a narrow development window starting late Tuesday and on Wednesday as the system skirts the Texas coastline. Interestingly, while Google's Deep Mind machine learning-based model " the…...

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Eye on the Tropics
michaelrlowry. substack. com > p > gulf-disturbance-to-heighten-flood

Gulf Disturbance to Heighten Flood Threat from Texas to Georgia this Week

1+ week, 4+ day ago  (311+ words) As of Monday morning, flood watches already blanketed most of eastern Texas, Louisiana, and west-central Mississippi as moisture levels soar to record levels. The abundant tropical air sweeping into the Texas Gulf Coast today will mean downpours that develop will…...

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Eye on the Tropics
michaelrlowry. substack. com > p > monitoring-the-northern-gulf-into

Monitoring the Northern Gulf into Next Week

2+ week, 8+ hour ago  (441+ words) The disturbance that we began previewing in this newsletter over a week ago and that was first mentioned by NHC on Wednesday is now centered over the Bay of Campeche in the extreme southern Gulf. The low-pressure area is an…...

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Eye on the Tropics
michaelrlowry. substack. com > p > updated-2026-hurricane-outlook-trends

Updated 2026 Hurricane Outlook Trends Down as El Ni'o is Officially Declared

2+ week, 1+ day ago  (457+ words) On Wednesday, the team of hurricane experts at Colorado State University (CSU) issued their June forecast update for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, reducing their predictions from their earlier April outlook, and now calls for the lowest tropical activity seen across…...

Eye on the Tropics
michaelrlowry. substack. com > p > nhc-tags-first-area-to-watch-of-the

NHC Tags First Area to Watch of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

2+ week, 2+ day ago  (385+ words) A disturbance we first detailed in this newsletter a week ago is now being tagged by the National Hurricane for low development odds later this week in the southern reaches of the Gulf before moving inland over eastern Mexico late…...

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