federalreserve.gov —  2+ day ago

...Francois de Soyres, Alexandre Gaillard, and Henry Young Most statistical agencies construct sectoral real GDP using double deflation and base period... ...Between 1999 and 2021, "physical" productivity cumulative growth in the Finance sector was 15pp lower compared to the Solow Residual, while it was...

federalreserve.gov —  3+ day ago

...At the 2023 Santa Barbara County Economic Summit, University of California, Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project, Santa Barbara, California (via... ...Open Market Committee (FOMC) has not provided sufficient clarity as to what we should do with our policy rate at the next meeting.... ...The consensus of private sector forecasts tracked by the Blue Chip survey is for annualized growth of only a tenth of a percent or two above zero... ...At the same time, April was the second month non-manufacturing businesses expanded modestly, according to respondents of the Institute for Supply...

federalreserve.gov —  4+ day ago

...Brennan, Tomaz Cajner, Cynthia Doniger, Jacob Williams We present an indicator of job loss derived from Twitter data, based on a fine-tuned neural... ...Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) Measuring Job Loss during the Pandemic Recession in Real Time with Twitter Data Anbar Aizenman,... ...These findings are especially strong for the period of the Pandemic Recession, when our Twitter indicator continues to track job loss well but where... ...Additionally, we find that our Twitter job loss indicator provides incremental information in predicting official unemployment flows in a given month...

federalreserve.gov —  4+ day ago

...We find that the Twitter Financial Sentiment Index (TFSI) correlates highly with corporate bond spreads and other price- and survey-based measures... ...We document that overnight Twitter financial sentiment helps predict next day stock market returns.... ...monetary policy stance: a deterioration in Twitter financial sentiment the day ahead of an FOMC statement release predicts the size of restrictive... ...Keywords: Financial Market Sentiment, Monetary policy, Natural Language Processing, Stock Returns, Twitter...

federalreserve.gov —  4+ day ago

...Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement action with The Bank of Nova Scotia and Bank of Nova Scotia New York Agency For release... ...EDT The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday announced the termination of the enforcement action listed below: The Bank of Nova Scotia, Toronto, Canada...